For the curious - Swine Flu Thread

[Rkolter]

God, could you imagine if HIV was airborne?

A disease that is contageous for years and yet catastrophically fatal at the end of it? We'd have a lot of money spent on a true cure for AIDS. And either we'd find one, or we'd all die, all within a couple decades.

[Tellurider]

God, could you imagine if HIV was airborne?

A disease that is contageous for years and yet catastrophically fatal at the end of it? We'd have a lot of money spent on a true cure for AIDS. And either we'd find one, or we'd all die, all within a couple decades.

Most of us would die.

Some people have a genetic mutation that means HIV cannot enter their cells, and therefore replicate itself. The HIV virus enters through a specific receptor, and most of the treatments are focused on blocking that receptor so the virus can't reproduce. But this receptor is sort of an evolutionary holdover and not actually necessary for anything, so people who don't have this receptor are fine, and also can't get HIV.

And KWill I was talking about how instead of taking reasonable precautions like education and condom usage, people are instead going "OMG QUARANTINE" like idiots. That's where I was going with that.

[KWill]

And KWill I was talking about how instead of taking reasonable precautions like education and condom usage, people are instead going "OMG QUARANTINE" like idiots. That's where I was going with that.

I know, I was just elaborating as to why AIDS and HIV shouldn't be treated like influenza, precaution-wise.

[Grabmygoblin]

I'm not worried about all this, but I am following the news. flu pandemics aren't what kills- it's the fact that the hospitals can't handle an influx of patients, and people have trouble treating the secondary symptoms/viruses.

my favorite professor canceled class because he has the flu, which I'm glad he did not because I think he might give it to me but because he HAS THE FLU and should rest.

hopefully we'll see a shift in public policy. factory farming is what breeds these really dangerous, antibiotic-resistant diseases, and there isn't any real plan in the states for how to deal with a pandemic, especially on the smaller scale. we need to really get our act together on all this.

[Rkolter]

I'm not worried about all this, but I am following the news. flu pandemics aren't what kills- it's the fact that the hospitals can't handle an influx of patients, and people have trouble treating the secondary symptoms/viruses.

I'm sorry, this is not correct. My cousin died when pus from the Flu filled his lungs and impinged against his heart, preventing it from beating properly and causing heart failure.

Netpoet almost died from the flu itself too.

The 1918 Spanish Flu was also called the Purple Flu because the flu had hemmoragic components. There are literally tens of thousands of case studies of people feeling fine before bed, and dying overnight from the 1918 Spanish Flu.

The flu most assuredly can kill on it's own.

MixedMyth wanted some stats for normal flu:

10-15% infection rate worldwide yearly (seems about the same in the US too).
500,000 killed worldwide, 30,000 in the US. That's a lethality of, give or take, 0.1%

The H1N1 2009 Human flu:
60% infectivity give or take (from the index town and from schools)
4.8% lethality but that's highly misrepesented by the early deaths. 0.5% if you take out the early deaths.

If 60% infectivity and 0.5% lethality remained constant, that would be 900,000 deaths in the USA by the time the pandemic runs it's course. BUT - pandemic flus are known to evolve rapidly and this flu could easily get more infective or more lethal - or less infective and less lethal. And more often, "less" is likely. So the above information is really a snapshot in time, and not a set of constant values.

[MixedMyth]

Interesting, so it's five times more lethal than the regular flu, but still a pretty small percentage. However, those statistics for H1N1 are probably mostly taken from evidence in Mexico, I'm guessing, so it may in fact be less lethal than that since many of the deaths resulted from people waiting too long to seek help for not having access to proper medical treatment.

[Phact0rri]

Has Madagascar closed its ports yet?

Someone's played Pandemic II.

madagascar... an island of survivors.

[Tellurider]

Has Madagascar closed its ports yet?

Someone's played Pandemic II.

madagascar... an island of survivors.

ho noez!

madagascar-swine-flu.jpg (87.82 KiB) Viewed 2239 times

[KWill]

hopefully we'll see a shift in public policy. factory farming is what breeds these really dangerous, antibiotic-resistant diseases, and there isn't any real plan in the states for how to deal with a pandemic, especially on the smaller scale. we need to really get our act together on all this.

Although antibiotics don't help against swine flu...

[Risky]

It seems evidence of a patient-zero was discovered... not even sure it was in Mexico.

[Grabmygoblin]

hopefully we'll see a shift in public policy. factory farming is what breeds these really dangerous, antibiotic-resistant diseases, and there isn't any real plan in the states for how to deal with a pandemic, especially on the smaller scale. we need to really get our act together on all this.

Although antibiotics don't help against swine flu...

well, no, but making our antibiotics useless probably isn't a good idea in general.

I'm not worried about all this, but I am following the news. flu pandemics aren't what kills- it's the fact that the hospitals can't handle an influx of patients, and people have trouble treating the secondary symptoms/viruses.

I'm sorry, this is not correct. My cousin died when pus from the Flu filled his lungs and impinged against his heart, preventing it from beating properly and causing heart failure.

Netpoet almost died from the flu itself too.

The 1918 Spanish Flu was also called the Purple Flu because the flu had hemmoragic components. There are literally tens of thousands of case studies of people feeling fine before bed, and dying overnight from the 1918 Spanish Flu.

The flu most assuredly can kill on it's own.

I didn't mean to say that the flu doesn't kill. the normal yearly virus kills, as you can attest. I'm just saying that from historical analysis of previous pandemics that the viruses wouldn't have killed as many if the hospitals were able to treat patients as well as they normally do.

[Eve Z.]

I've opened yahoo main page and this news popped out!

An American woman died from swine flu, after being hospitalized for about 2 weeks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090506/ap_ ... _flu_texas

[Rkolter]

Today the WHO has said they expect aproximately 2 billion people - 30% of the world, to get infected with H1N1 based on past pandemics.

This should not frighten anyone; it's about par for the course. Likewise, when the WHO moves the pandemic level to 6 (which they will do at some point), don't be frightened, it's an indication of geographic spread, not danger.

What this should mean to you -

If this prediction comes true, and it is likely to come true, you will know someone who catches H1N1. Or you'll get it yourself. It may be so mild you won't know, or it may suck like catching the flu usually does.

Will you die -

Not likely at all with this current version of H1N1. It so far has a lethality of 1% and that is still highly suspect because of the number of unreported infections and the fact most of the dead came from what is essentially a third world area of Mexico City. It might be much more lethal if you have no running water, other health issues, and no access to good medical care. Fortunately, most of us aren't in that boat.

There are two things you must keep in mind though:

Flu finds it extremely easy to mutate, and even easier to mutate when it's in a host that has another flu infection in progress already. Flu is an RNA virus, which means in simple terms, it lacks the machinery to reduce mutations in it's genes. It's going on flu season in the southern hemisphere, which means there are lots of ripe hosts for H1N1 to mix with.

Pandemic flu almost always mutates and comes in multiple waves. This is no guarantee that it'll become worse - it can, and has, mutated into basically harmless forms. But, it's also mutated into lots more nasty forms too. The point to this story is that you shouldn't fear the current pass of H1N1, but you should be concerned that it may come back in a worse form. Don't let the "weak ass H1N1 flu" mindset prevent you from getting a vaccination, if one comes available.

Second, don't be alarmed if large numbers of dead are posted. We are talking about huge numbers of infected here. Even tiny percentages of huge numbers are themselves, big numbers. For example:

If the Flu kills at only one-tenth the rate of normal flu, or 0.01% (one one-hundredth of a percent), with two billion infections that's still 200,000 dead.

If the Flu kills at the rate of the normal flu, or 0.1% (one tenth of a percent), with two billion infections that's still 2,000,000 dead.

Remember, the normal flu, even with vaccines available, kills 30-40 thousand in the US and 300-500 thousand in the world each year. So, don't get freaked if you start seeing "large" numbers of dead. Large is a very, very relative term.

Finally -

Don't be surprised if you don't see counts that go up to two billion. Some countries are notoriously bad about reporting pandemics to the WHO, and those countries (China... India... we're looking at you in particular) have a disproportionate amount of the world population. In fact, while it's all but certain that the flu has spread to these countries, but as yet they've reported not a single case.


This has been a public service announcement by the CG Science Council. Science, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

[Netpoet]

Science, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

It... it's not?! Ah hell, NOW what am I supposed to have on my Wheaties then?!?

[Tellurider]

Science, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

It... it's not?! Ah hell, NOW what am I supposed to have on my Wheaties then?!?

not "just" for breakfast doesn't mean you can't still have it for breakfast.

I like my science with jam and hot coffee, personally.

[Rkolter]

Science is a dish best served with a side of green beans and a slice of ham with gravy.

[Netpoet]

Fooey on that. I want my science poured liberally over my Wheaties, and have enough residual left afterwards in the bowl that I can suck it down greedily.

Besides, green beans suck. Nasty things.

[Rkolter]

There is a new test kit that's been shipped out to the states and soon, to the world, that will test specifically for swine flu and give a rapid response.

As a result of this test kit, you may see a significant spike in US, and later World, confirmed cases, followed potentially by a drop-off. This is just the kit hitting the labs and hospitals and doctor's offices, allowing them to speed up testing and clear up backlog.

For example, the total confirmed in the US doubled today - over 800 new confirmed cases. That's not 800 new infections, that's just a big surge in tests on existing cases.

The flu is still spreading and new infections are popping up all over the place, but just not at a rate of over 100% a day.

[Rkolter]

Two things -

China posted it's first infection. HAH. My money is on there being LOTS more infected. But, at least now in a country of 1.2 billion with piss-ass poor health services, they've admitted to one infection.

Also, the Washington Post put together a really good article on what the flu is, and isn't, the history of pandemic flu, how it mutates, and so on. It's a good read. They take literary license with a fact or two (they say 97% of the world got infected with the 1918 Spanish Flu for example), but overall, I reccomend it if you're curious about the history of the flu.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews

[Netpoet]

Found this last night, was amused.

>Net