The Future--Prevented!

FrustratedPilot · Post by **FrustratedPilot** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 12:37 pm

Hi.

I noticed that the local library where I am still has a copy of the 1981 "Book of Predictions" (from the series that included the Books of Lists). So today I took a peek inside to see what was being predicted and by whom, and what should have happened by now. There were some surprises.

1) More than one expert predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. One prediction was within one year of when it really happened.
2) Somebody predicted a scandal in the government of the U.S. that resembled what happened with Oliver North and Iran-Contra.
3) Somebody predicted that a high-profile televised court case would oust the soap operas from the TV networks.
4) Many of the predictions involving the prevalence of the computer chip and related media have come to pass, including E-Mail, hand-held phones, and PDAs.

On the other hand, we have a pile of prophesied events that did not happen, and things that have not yet come (if they ever do):

* Passage of the Equal Rights Amendment
* Emergence of large-scale Solar Power
* Collapse of the Public Education System
* Collapse/Reform of Agriculture System (factory-farms cease to exist because of high costs, replaced by smaller, more efficient farms and hydroponics)
* Permanent Fuel Rationing laws imposed
* Nuclear War, or a large-scale conventional war in North America
* Global Government, preluded by the merger of the United States and Canada into one nation
* Permanent colonies in Earth orbit and on Luna
* Economic Depression triggered by a massive corporate bankruptcy domino-effect. This and increasing automation drive almost everybody out of work.
* Legalization of Marijuana (starting with the South American nations, then individual states in the U.S.)
* De-Urbanization...city centers are razed and the space turned into more modern living area ala Suburbia
* Nationalization of all police, medical, emergency and social services.
* Laser weaponry becoming widely available, replacing firearms in most militaries
* Powered armor for infantry soldiers
* Bullet trains in the U.S.
* Nuclear families fall out of practice, replaced by people either living alone or families merging into extended clans
* Mass extinctions of animals, including whales
* Undersea habitats
* Passenger space travel (space shuttles being put into series production)
* First war in space, fought almost entirely by automated defense satellites
* 3D TV
* Bionic organs becoming commonplace
* Hovercar vehicles leading to the decline of asphalt paving
* Contact with extraterrestial civilizations

And this is just scratching the surface.

Bushipunk · Post by **Bushipunk** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 12:51 pm

Well, I think there's a pretty obvious explanation for why a lot of that stuff hasn't come to pass.

While the technology has been developed, those with the imagination to develop it have taken a page from Thack's book and kept it to themselves...

I for one certainly don't intend to go sharing my laser weapons with anyone... Although if you happen to have a hovercar, I'd be willing to discuss a trade...

KingLeon · Post by **KingLeon** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 2:51 pm

I dunno about that whole technology being developed and not used... the fuel-cell seems to promise some change in the world in the next ten years...

Maccabee · Post by **Maccabee** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 3:45 pm

On 2002-03-01 12:37, FrustratedPilot wrote:

On the other hand, we have a pile of prophesied events that did not happen, and things that have not yet come (if they ever do):

* Passage of the Equal Rights Amendment

Well, this one was kind of a no-brainer. Of course you'd predict passage of the ERA. Only 8 senators voted against it, and 13 states needed to say no to block passage. As it was, it was a very near thing. 35 of the necessary 38 states ratified.

I think it's a great shame it didn't pass. Most of what it sought to accomplish has been done through ordinary legislation, but ordinary legislation can be repealed easily enough. Hopefully some day we'll be in a position to try again.

Curious thing. There was a poll in my government class about the ERA today. Not one girl (I won't call them women) said she'd support it. One opposed, the others abstained.

* Emergence of large-scale Solar Power

Should have happened, but with the lobbying power the fossil fuel industry has... especially now that two of their own are in charge of the executive department... I feel ill.

* Collapse of the Public Education System

They've been predicting that one since there was a public education system.

* Collapse/Reform of Agriculture System (factory-farms cease to exist because of high costs, replaced by smaller, more efficient farms and hydroponics)

Don't know where they got that one from. Economy of scale, me droogies. Economy of scale.

* Permanent Fuel Rationing laws imposed

Not until we've thoroughly depleted global reserves or the exporting nations (which for the U.S. primarily means Latin America, not the Middle East) become overwhelmingly politically hostile. The current governments of Mexico and Venezuela are way too right-wing to consider turning off the spigot as things stand now. Hmm... that came out sounding critical of those governments. Not my intention. And now that I think about it, I'm not certain the news stories I'm using to get my impression are even about Venezuela. My sister-in-law's from Colombia and I know bupkiss about her home continent. That sort of blows.

* Nuclear War, or a large-scale conventional war in North America
* Global Government, preluded by the merger of the United States and Canada into one nation
* Permanent colonies in Earth orbit and on Luna

Sounds like somebody was reading Future Shock and smoking weed when they wrote these.

I do want those orbital colonies. The problem is that nobody wants to pay for them. I watched the debates on funding a U.S. space station on C-Span back in the early '90s. Broke my goddam heart.

* Economic Depression triggered by a massive corporate bankruptcy domino-effect. This and increasing automation drive almost everybody out of work.

Unlikely, thanks to liberals. Too much government intervention to allow for the sort of massive collapse we saw in '29, unless there's a war or certain people manage to deregulate everything (because it worked so well with the energy business) and leave us where we were in '28.

* Legalization of Marijuana (starting with the South American nations, then individual states in the U.S.)

This one could happen any time. There have been successful local efforts to legalize medical marijuana. If only the feds would get off their backs. John Ashcroft believes in limited federal power, unless locals want to do something that offends him.

* De-Urbanization...city centers are razed and the space turned into more modern living area ala Suburbia

Heavens forfend! Not a smart prediction even in the '80s, though. Urban renewal projects were already the rage. Instead we're seeing increasing efforts to limit the blight of suburban sprawl. It's coming 40 years later than I'd have liked, but better late than never.

* Nationalization of all police, medical, emergency and social services.

It'd take a much bigger crisis than 9/11 to cause that.

* Laser weaponry becoming widely available, replacing firearms in most militaries
* Powered armor for infantry soldiers
* Bullet trains in the U.S.

Eventually.

Depends on cost-effectiveness. Probably not in my lifetime, though it should be technologically possible before I kick it.

That'd be nice, but not until Detroit's a whole lot weaker than it is and/or the oil crunch hits.

* Nuclear families fall out of practice, replaced by people either living alone or families merging into extended clans

Happening to a certain extent. They probably just massively exaggerated the trend.

* Mass extinctions of animals, including whales

Happening. We just haven't gotten to finishing off the whales yet. They're high-profile, so they get protected when less charismatic creatures get ignored. Not for lack of effort on Japan's part, of course. "We are conducting scientific studies." Yeah. Studies on how good whale meat tastes and how much you can charge for it in Tokyo restaurants. Russia and Noway are doing their parts to make the seas safe for plankton too.
[/quote]

* Undersea habitats

Not for a long time. Still plenty of space up top we haven't turned into tract housing yet.

* Passenger space travel (space shuttles being put into series production)

No point to it until you get the orbital colonies going. Tourism isn't cost effective with space shuttles.

* First war in space, fought almost entirely by automated defense satellites

For this to happen, the Russians would have to get their shit together, the Chinese would have to develop an effective space program, or the European Union would have to have a deadly falling out with the U.S. None of this is likely in the near future. The Chinese are the bigges threat, but they've got terrestrial concerns to worry about -- Taiwan and potential (or actual) rebellions, primarily.

* 3D TV
* Bionic organs becoming commonplace
* Hovercar vehicles leading to the decline of asphalt paving
* Contact with extraterrestial civilizations

I'm surprised it isn't already available.

Ditto.

Future shock and weed again.

Wishful thinking. This isn't a prediction, it's a guess. Or a wish. Greg Benford has some interesting commentary on this one at the Baen Books website (http://www.baen.com). It's worth looking at.

Maccabee, so shy and self-effacing about his opinions it probably makes you want to vomit

_________________
Risus est telum ultimum contra tyrranem. Nullus dictator exercitibus allibus ridiculem vulgi longe resistare potest.

[ This Message was edited by: Maccabee on 2002-03-01 15:53 ]

FrustratedPilot · Post by **FrustratedPilot** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 5:27 pm

Maccabee wrote:
I wrote:
* Collapse/Reform of Agriculture System (factory-farms cease to exist because of high costs, replaced by smaller, more efficient farms and hydroponics)
Don't know where they got that one from. Economy of scale, me droogies. Economy of scale.

At the time (and probably still, today) petrochemicals made up the lion's share of the building blocks for pesticides and fertilizers, and these make for the highest outlays in farm operations. I don't know if farmers rely on these chemicals now as much as they did 21 years ago. But economists then realized that oil affects all aspects of our economy, not just transportation and production.

* De-Urbanization...city centers are razed and the space turned into more modern living area ala Suburbia
Heavens forfend! Not a smart prediction even in the '80s, though. Urban renewal projects were already the rage. Instead we're seeing increasing efforts to limit the blight of suburban sprawl. It's coming 40 years later than I'd have liked, but better late than never.

I wish they'd do more to De-Urbanize Knoxville. The downtown is becoming depressingly ugly and increasingly irrelevant as it gets ringed in with elevated Interstate flyways and disused railways passing boarded up post-Victorian eyesore buildings.

Doublespeak · Post by **Doublespeak** » Fri Mar 01, 2002 10:15 pm

My predictions for 2023:

1) Cars will look different than they do now.
2) TVs will look different than they do now.
3) Computers will be cheaper and more
powerful (will probably look different
than they do now).
4) There will be advancement in military
technology.
5) Some sort of terrorist attack will occur
somewhere.
6) Many creatures will be dangerously close
to extinction and/or extinct.
7) Fashions will change.
8) Sentient gun wielding apes will rule the
Earth.

[ This Message was edited by: Doublespeak on 2002-03-01 22:16 ]

KingLeon · Post by **KingLeon** » Sat Mar 02, 2002 5:48 am

Heh, yeah... and I can predict, with 100% correctness, that in fifty years... the digits for years will be slightly different. In fact, I can predict the digits myself!

2052!

Good god! My clairovoyence is amazing even myself! I must not use it, for fear of what other earth-shattering things I may forsee...

Tom the Fanboy · Post by **Tom the Fanboy** » Sat Mar 02, 2002 9:15 am

On 2002-03-01 15:45, Maccabee wrote:
* Passenger space travel (space shuttles being put into series production)
No point to it until you get the orbital colonies going. Tourism isn't cost effective with space shuttles.

Ah, but it is happening with a select few people! Imagine NASA present Congress with this idea "Float us the money to put a half dozen cheaper, new space shuttles into production andthen we'll be able to charge rich people to go for rides into space and that will help us afford more things without you greedy warmonger bastards crippling our efforts. Oh...did I say that last bit out loud?"

I mean, there's been two space tourists so far in Russia. Not to mention the giant corporate sponsor logos that've been painted on certain rockets. I heard Doritos was the first. Them Russians are more innovative capitalists than I'd thought.

KingLeon · Post by **KingLeon** » Sun Mar 03, 2002 5:36 pm

Heh, the old Cricton look at things. If someone somewhere designs a complex, expensive technology that is yet amazing to the human mind... Someone will make a theme park out of it.

All they need to do is make shuttle trips to the moon, start a Moon base, and before you know it, we'll have Lunar Disney staring us in the face at nights... Just think of the zero-G rides...

Catz Bartlett · Post by **Catz Bartlett** » Sun Mar 03, 2002 7:03 pm

Oooh...I cannot WAIT for Lunar Disney!! It sounds like it would be so fun...

Plus, I'm willing to bet I'm one of the few people who wouldn't have any problem with zero-G conditions (I've never gotten seasick or airsick, I love those spinny G-force rides, and I LOOOOOVE roller coasters*)

Schol-R-LEA · Post by **Schol-R-LEA** » Mon Mar 04, 2002 7:18 pm

On 2002-03-02 05:48, KingLeon wrote:
Heh, yeah... and I can predict, with 100% correctness, that in fifty years... the digits for years will be slightly different. In fact, I can predict the digits myself!

2052!

Good god! My clairovoyence is amazing even myself! I must not use it, for fear of what other earth-shattering things I may forsee...

I'm gonna organize a massive calendrical-reform movement. Now I just have to come up with the calendar...

ZOMBIE USER 1252 · Post by **ZOMBIE USER 1252** » Mon Mar 04, 2002 7:41 pm

Yeah, yeah ... nuclear warfare, equal rights, dead animals, blah blah blah, WHERE IS MY BUBBLE-TOP CAR???????

>_<

I mean ... as if insurance companies haven't let stranger things slide past. Can't they at least give me an opportunity to buy a bubble-top car? I'm not even asking for it to float! (Although that would be nice.) Rear-end tasers controlled by buttons on the dashboard would be snifty, too.

That, or else give me a frickin' hoverboard. Come on ... why be alive in the 21st century if you can't have all that futuristic stuff from the movies?

Well, the robotic pet is a start ... I GUESS.

FrustratedPilot · Post by **FrustratedPilot** » Mon Mar 04, 2002 7:46 pm

Tried to decimalize time once. Did no good whatsoever. Do you base the system on the day or the year? Either way, it won't come out evenly.

For a sci-fi story I tried to write, I got a little wild idea. Since the Nautical Mile is a MINUTE of Longitude at the Equator, I compared the proportion of the Nautical Mile to a kilometer, applied that ratio to the Temporal Minute and designated the result the Temporal Kilometer!

T-Klik = approx. 32.4 Terran Seconds

From the T-Klik I went up to the D-Klik (5.4 Minutes, 10 T-Kliks), the H-Klik (54 Minutes, 100 T-Kliks) and the T-Meg (540 Minutes, 1000 T-Kliks).

This system was said to be needed as the story took place in a civilization with numerous space colonies all with different temporal patterns and still needing to synchronize with one another.

Rognik · Post by **Rognik** » Mon Mar 04, 2002 8:14 pm

Actually, a government-owned Marajuana plant has been opened in Flin-Flon, Saskatchewan. It's starting to be legal here, but only for medicinal purposes.

Vitriol · Post by **Vitriol** » Tue Mar 05, 2002 5:35 am

Tried to decimalize time once. Did no good whatsoever. Do you base the system on the day or the year? Either way, it won't come out evenly.

Well, there's not a lot you can do about days and yeasr; a day is a set period, as is a year.

You can decimalise hours, minutes and seconds, though. Split a day into, say 10 M-Hours, an M-Hour into 100 M-Minutes and each M-Minute into 100 M-Seconds.

An M-Hour (Deciday) is 2.4 normal hours

An M-Minute (Milliday)is 1.44 normal minutes

An M-Second (???day) is 0.864 normal seconds

These don't work too badly, but it may be possible to adjust them to get a close answer to normal measurements, since these are just off the top of my head.

Course, America still uses sensible measurements like yards and inches...

Rob (who has to think really hard to work in feet, inches and yards, let alone Farenheit).

FrustratedPilot · Post by **FrustratedPilot** » Tue Mar 05, 2002 10:07 am

On 2002-03-04 19:41, Rumy-chan wrote:
Yeah, yeah ... WHERE IS MY BUBBLE-TOP CAR???????

>_<

There was a rumor this past week that someone had actually invented transparent aluminum, which, of course, would make transparent car bodies possible. Upon further examination, the truth is that the inventors came up with a new glass/ceramic compound that is transparent but stronger than any previous transparent matter (so it can be used for bulletproof glass on combat aircraft and military vehicles)...but still, if it is mass-produced and the car makers get on board with the concept...

* unveils the 2004 Rumy-chanmobile *

Grifter · Post by **Grifter** » Fri Mar 08, 2002 11:09 pm

* Powered armor for infantry soldiers

This is currently being researched. Check it out.

http://www.discover.com/feb_02/feattech.html

Starship Troopers, here we come.

[ This Message was edited by: Grifter on 2002-03-08 23:10 ]

FrustratedPilot · Post by **FrustratedPilot** » Sat Mar 09, 2002 9:24 am

Powered Armor has been in the works since the 1960s. I was just relating that the 1981 book was predicting that PAs would already be in use by now.

I wonder if anybody tried to build the suit from MADOX 01.